Experts,
experts, experts. So many to read and
hear, so little time. Empowered by the
Internet, millions of us are trying to influence millions of us, myself of
course included. Should you listen to
me? That’s your call. In fact, I repeatedly have advised that
neither I nor any other expert can provide the fine grained advice that any
rational person needs to decide whether what is offered is applicable to
them. Everything must be filtered
through unique features of yourself and your essential contexts.
To
reinforce the reasonableness of my skepticism regarding experts, let’s think
about the beliefs of two legendary Nobel Prize winners: Albert Einstein and
Paul Krugman.
As
many of you know, Einstein vigorously disputed what has come to be called
quantum physics. For instance, in
cynically doubting a portion of the theory he infamously wrote in 1926 that God
does not play dice with the universe. At
that particular point in time, had interest in quantum physics evaporated, we
quite likely would not now have computers, smartphones, the Internet, GPS,
or MRI.
Paul
Krugman, formerly a professor at Princeton University and MIT and presently
Distinguished Professor of Economics at the Graduate Center of the City
University of New York, and a columnist for The New York Times, made some
infamous misstatements of his own.
Perhaps the most noteworthy of these was his prognosticating in 1998
that:
The growth of
the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's
law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network
is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent:
most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become
clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the
fax machine's.
The
Krugman quote is supremely ironic in that he made his prediction in an article
that he penned entitled, “Why most economists' predictions are wrong.” No big thing?
For at least thousand years some of the most learned Europeans asserted
that the earth is the center of the universe.
When indisputable evidence accumulated to the contrary I am sure that
many resisted admitted their mistake.
But I wonder if they had the unmitigated gall of Paul Krugman who in
December, 2013 rationalized:
But the main
point is that I don't claim any special expertise in technology -- I almost
never make technological forecasts, and the only reason there was stuff like
that in the 98 piece was because the assignment required that I do that sort of
thing.
Shame
on Time Magazine then for forcing Krugman, Nobel prize winner and former
professor at Princeton University and
MIT, to make a mistake! He surely is too
brilliant to take responsibility for an erroneous statement made of his own
volition.
Given
human fallibility then, I encourage you to be especially cautious when exposed
to information presented under the guise of expertise. Too often we are lulled into complacency by
fancy titles and prominent people. To
maintain any credibility in all of this I must admit that while cautioning you
about experts, I implicitly present myself as having some expertise to
dispense.
Certainly
I am not arrogant or delusional enough to compare myself to Einstein or even to
Krugman. Even after 40 years of psychological
practice, I am reluctant to summarily predict what will be best for you. And since “healthy” skepticism is my default,
I could not criticize you for being equally cautious about anything you read
that I write, including today’s post.
References
Einstein,
Albert (1926). "I, at any rate, am
convinced that [God] does not throw dice."
Letter to Max Born.
Krugman,
Paul (1998). Why most economists'
predictions are wrong. Red Herring
Magazine, June.
Yarow, J. (2013).
Paul Krugman Responds To All The People Throwing Around His Old Internet
Quote. Business Insider. http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-krugman-responds-to-internet-quote-2013-12.
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