Before the First Shot Is Fired

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu famously presented what he claimed was a cache of over 100,000 Iranian nuclear documents — materials Israeli operatives reportedly smuggled out of a Tehran warehouse under the noses of Iranian security. As The New York Times and Haaretz later confirmed, this Mossad operation took months of planning and suggested Israel had deep operational capabilities within Iran’s borders (Bergman, 2018; Kershner, 2018).

Israel's success didn’t just stem from superior technology; it came from deep infiltration — agents, informants, and sympathizers placed over years within Iran’s military, nuclear infrastructure, and security circles. These networks enabled not only sabotage operations, like the explosion at Natanz nuclear facility in 2020, but also the assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, reportedly using remote-controlled weapons (BBC, 2020). The message was clear: Israel knows where you are, what you're doing, and how to stop it. That history laid the groundwork for the continuing incredible assassinations and military victories playing out now in 2025.

The unseen war, then, began long before soldiers marched or missiles launched. In the case of Israel and Iran, intelligence — the covert kind — has been the invisible hand tilting the balance. For decades, Israel has run one of the most aggressive and effective intelligence operations against Iran, especially through its Mossad agency. Through a blend of cyber warfare, human intelligence, and targeted sabotage, Israel has not only kept Iran's nuclear ambitions in check but, at times, humiliated the Iranian security establishment.

Now, consider not Israel and Iran, but China and the United States. If war ever broke out between the two superpowers, intelligence would again serve as the silent battlefield. And China, many experts argue, is already deeply embedded in the American fabric — not merely through clandestine spying, but through influence operations, data theft, cyber espionage, and intellectual infiltration.

The FBI has repeatedly warned that China poses the “greatest long-term counterintelligence threat” to the United States (Wray, 2020). The scope is staggering. From the theft of F-35 fighter jet blueprints to intrusions into U.S. government personnel records (the 2015 OPM hack affected over 20 million Americans), Chinese cyber operations have harvested a trove of sensitive material.

But the threat goes far beyond computers. China has pursued what some intelligence analysts call a "whole-of-society" approach — using every available avenue, from business acquisitions to university ties, to gather intelligence and exert influence.

Chinese companies, many with ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), have purchased or invested in American farmland, agricultural supply chains, data companies, and even private security firms. In 2023, Chinese investors were found to have acquired land near U.S. military bases — notably in North Dakota near a sensitive drone facility (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2022). While such purchases are legal under American law, the strategic implications are unsettling.

Meanwhile, American universities — known for their openness and world-class research — have become targets of influence. The U.S. Department of Justice’s now-paused “China Initiative” aimed to root out intellectual property theft and undisclosed ties between American academics and Chinese institutions. Cases like that of Harvard chemist Charles Lieber, who secretly accepted funding from China while working on U.S.-funded projects, highlighted just how porous the boundaries between civilian science and strategic military application have become.

Then there are the students. As of 2023, there were nearly 300,000 Chinese students studying in the United States — by far the largest foreign student group. Many are focused on STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, mathematics), and while most are likely here simply to learn and advance their careers, a small fraction may be tapped — or pressured — by Chinese intelligence to collect information. The Chinese government maintains tight control over its citizens abroad, often using family back home as leverage.

A 2020 report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute found evidence of Chinese military-affiliated researchers studying abroad in U.S. universities under civilian guises, learning cutting-edge defense-related technologies (Joske, 2020). These researchers often returned to China with skills that directly enhanced PLA (People’s Liberation Army) capabilities.

If a hot war erupted between the U.S. and China, Beijing might be better prepared than it seems — not because of an overwhelming military edge, but because of what it already knows about American systems, infrastructure, and weaknesses. Chinese cyber units have already demonstrated an ability to infiltrate American power grids, financial systems, and telecommunications networks. In a wartime scenario, they could sabotage logistics, disrupt communications, or sow domestic confusion before the first missile is fired.

In contrast, the U.S. may find it harder to gain similar traction inside China, where the state maintains rigid control over the internet, society, and foreign access. Beijing has learned from Moscow and Tehran the value of “asymmetric warfare”: war fought not just on battlefields, but in supply chains, social media, server rooms, and scholarly journals.

Just as Israel’s infiltration of Iran gave it a decisive edge in disrupting nuclear development, China's quiet, pervasive embedding into the United States’ commercial, technological, and educational systems could one day function similarly — not in preventing war, but in shaping how that war plays out. The battlefield is no longer only physical — it’s intellectual, digital, and relational.

The question is not whether we are being spied on. We are. The question is how deeply — and whether we’ll realize the consequences before it’s too late. 

What should we do to force our politicians to act? I suggest you consider the following::  On January 17, 2025, in the case of TikTok v. Garland the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, sell off its U.S. operations by January 19, 2025, or face a complete ban of the app within the United States. There was no ambiguity. On January 18 and 19, just as the ban was set to take effect TikTok briefly vanished from U.S. app stores and was temporarily taken offline. However, within hours, the app was restored following behind-the-scenes assurances that newly inaugurated President Donald Trump was preparing an executive order that would temporarily delay enforcement of the law.

Acordingly, after taking office on January 20, 2025, President Trump swiftly issued a 75-day reprieve to give ByteDance and potential American buyers time to negotiate a deal. Fast forward to June 20 and we have a third extension of the deadline. Now ByteDance has until September 17, 2025, to finalize a divestiture or face the app’s forced removal from the U.S.  So, TikTok remains fully operational and widely accessible in the United States. What would Israel do if  it was their country being infiltrated by Tik Tok and the Tik Tok owner was Iran? 

References

Kershner, I. (2018). Israel says it has secret files proving Iran lied about nuclear program. New York Times.

BBC News. (2020). Iran scientist killed by remote-controlled weapon.

Wray, C. (2020). China is the greatest threat to America’s national security. FBI speech.

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2022). Report on Chinese Land Purchases Near Military Sites.

Joske, A. (2020). The Chinese Communist Party’s global search for technology and talent. ASPI.

Bergman, R. (2018). Mossad's Iran nuclear archive heist. The New York Times.