Before the First Shot Is Fired

In 2018, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu famously presented what he claimed was a cache of over 100,000 Iranian nuclear documents — materials Israeli operatives reportedly smuggled out of a Tehran warehouse under the noses of Iranian security. As The New York Times and Haaretz later confirmed, this Mossad operation took months of planning and suggested Israel had deep operational capabilities within Iran’s borders (Bergman, 2018; Kershner, 2018).

Israel's success didn’t just stem from superior technology; it came from deep infiltration — agents, informants, and sympathizers placed over years within Iran’s military, nuclear infrastructure, and security circles. These networks enabled not only sabotage operations, like the explosion at Natanz nuclear facility in 2020, but also the assassination of top Iranian nuclear scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, reportedly using remote-controlled weapons (BBC, 2020). The message was clear: Israel knows where you are, what you're doing, and how to stop it. That history laid the groundwork for the continuing incredible assassinations and military victories playing out now in 2025.

The unseen war, then, began long before soldiers marched or missiles launched. In the case of Israel and Iran, intelligence — the covert kind — has been the invisible hand tilting the balance. For decades, Israel has run one of the most aggressive and effective intelligence operations against Iran, especially through its Mossad agency. Through a blend of cyber warfare, human intelligence, and targeted sabotage, Israel has not only kept Iran's nuclear ambitions in check but, at times, humiliated the Iranian security establishment.

Now, consider not Israel and Iran, but China and the United States. If war ever broke out between the two superpowers, intelligence would again serve as the silent battlefield. And China, many experts argue, is already deeply embedded in the American fabric — not merely through clandestine spying, but through influence operations, data theft, cyber espionage, and intellectual infiltration.

The FBI has repeatedly warned that China poses the “greatest long-term counterintelligence threat” to the United States (Wray, 2020). The scope is staggering. From the theft of F-35 fighter jet blueprints to intrusions into U.S. government personnel records (the 2015 OPM hack affected over 20 million Americans), Chinese cyber operations have harvested a trove of sensitive material.

But the threat goes far beyond computers. China has pursued what some intelligence analysts call a "whole-of-society" approach — using every available avenue, from business acquisitions to university ties, to gather intelligence and exert influence.

Chinese companies, many with ties to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), have purchased or invested in American farmland, agricultural supply chains, data companies, and even private security firms. In 2023, Chinese investors were found to have acquired land near U.S. military bases — notably in North Dakota near a sensitive drone facility (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2022). While such purchases are legal under American law, the strategic implications are unsettling.

Meanwhile, American universities — known for their openness and world-class research — have become targets of influence. The U.S. Department of Justice’s now-paused “China Initiative” aimed to root out intellectual property theft and undisclosed ties between American academics and Chinese institutions. Cases like that of Harvard chemist Charles Lieber, who secretly accepted funding from China while working on U.S.-funded projects, highlighted just how porous the boundaries between civilian science and strategic military application have become.

Then there are the students. As of 2023, there were nearly 300,000 Chinese students studying in the United States — by far the largest foreign student group. Many are focused on STEM fields (science, technology, engineering, mathematics), and while most are likely here simply to learn and advance their careers, a small fraction may be tapped — or pressured — by Chinese intelligence to collect information. The Chinese government maintains tight control over its citizens abroad, often using family back home as leverage.

A 2020 report by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute found evidence of Chinese military-affiliated researchers studying abroad in U.S. universities under civilian guises, learning cutting-edge defense-related technologies (Joske, 2020). These researchers often returned to China with skills that directly enhanced PLA (People’s Liberation Army) capabilities.

If a hot war erupted between the U.S. and China, Beijing might be better prepared than it seems — not because of an overwhelming military edge, but because of what it already knows about American systems, infrastructure, and weaknesses. Chinese cyber units have already demonstrated an ability to infiltrate American power grids, financial systems, and telecommunications networks. In a wartime scenario, they could sabotage logistics, disrupt communications, or sow domestic confusion before the first missile is fired.

In contrast, the U.S. may find it harder to gain similar traction inside China, where the state maintains rigid control over the internet, society, and foreign access. Beijing has learned from Moscow and Tehran the value of “asymmetric warfare”: war fought not just on battlefields, but in supply chains, social media, server rooms, and scholarly journals.

Just as Israel’s infiltration of Iran gave it a decisive edge in disrupting nuclear development, China's quiet, pervasive embedding into the United States’ commercial, technological, and educational systems could one day function similarly — not in preventing war, but in shaping how that war plays out. The battlefield is no longer only physical — it’s intellectual, digital, and relational.

The question is not whether we are being spied on. We are. The question is how deeply — and whether we’ll realize the consequences before it’s too late. 

What should we do to force our politicians to act? I suggest you consider the following::  On January 17, 2025, in the case of TikTok v. Garland the U.S. Supreme Court ruled unanimously that ByteDance, the Chinese parent company of TikTok, sell off its U.S. operations by January 19, 2025, or face a complete ban of the app within the United States. There was no ambiguity. On January 18 and 19, just as the ban was set to take effect TikTok briefly vanished from U.S. app stores and was temporarily taken offline. However, within hours, the app was restored following behind-the-scenes assurances that newly inaugurated President Donald Trump was preparing an executive order that would temporarily delay enforcement of the law.

Acordingly, after taking office on January 20, 2025, President Trump swiftly issued a 75-day reprieve to give ByteDance and potential American buyers time to negotiate a deal. Fast forward to June 20 and we have a third extension of the deadline. Now ByteDance has until September 17, 2025, to finalize a divestiture or face the app’s forced removal from the U.S.  So, TikTok remains fully operational and widely accessible in the United States. What would Israel do if  it was their country being infiltrated by Tik Tok and the Tik Tok owner was Iran? 

References

Kershner, I. (2018). Israel says it has secret files proving Iran lied about nuclear program. New York Times.

BBC News. (2020). Iran scientist killed by remote-controlled weapon.

Wray, C. (2020). China is the greatest threat to America’s national security. FBI speech.

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. (2022). Report on Chinese Land Purchases Near Military Sites.

Joske, A. (2020). The Chinese Communist Party’s global search for technology and talent. ASPI.

Bergman, R. (2018). Mossad's Iran nuclear archive heist. The New York Times.

Sharing Stories

You’re sitting on the beach, about to share a story with a friend. You have something important to say, and how you say it will determine whether your friend actually understands—or whether they nod politely, eyes glazing over.

As I often have discuss, sometimes context is the single most important factor in what we say and when.  It frames the story and helps your friend understand where you’re coming from. If you launch into a complicated explanation about your job or a new project without explaining why it matters, your friend might feel lost. But if you first share why you’re excited or how this story connects to their interests, they’re more likely to engage. Context bridges the gap between your world and theirs.

Next comes clarity—stripping away the verbal clutter to make your message easy to grasp. If your statements meander or your point gets buried under too many details, your friend might struggle to keep up. Clear language—short, direct sentences—helps your message land cleanly.

That raises the issue of information compression. Nobody wants to be stuck listening to a story that could have been summed up in a few words. Information compression is  distilling your message ; it doesn’t mean leaving out important parts, but rather prioritizing what truly matters. When you compress information properly, interlocutors absorb your point without getting lost.

Finally, information specificity brings the message to life. Generalities are like blurry photos. When you’re specific, people see in their mind’s eye and hear in their mind’s ear the sights and sounds that populate your thoughts.  Those specifics make your communications vivid and memorable, helping the other person truly connect to what you’re sharing.

So, next time you’re sharing a story, explaining a plan, or giving advice, think about context (why it matters), clarity (making it easy to follow), information compression (keeping it concise), and information specificity (making it come alive). Together, these elements transform your words from a jumble of sounds into something that sticks—something that truly resonates with listeners.  After all, the best communicators aren’t just speakers; they are bridges between hearts and minds.

To illustrate my points, imagine someone telling the story of a bad first day at a new job. I’ll give you two versions; the first violates the ideas I discussed and the second embodies them.

Version 1: Poor Communication (lacking context, clarity, compression, and specificity)

"So, like, yesterday, I went to that place, you know, and it was really, like, not what I thought it would be. I mean, there was so much stuff going on, and I didn’t even know what to do. And then I messed up and made a big mistake with some, like, important thing that was there, and the person, I think, didn’t really like it. And then I had to do this other thing with the thing, and it was all just too much, and I felt really bad after. I hope tomorrow’s better."

Version 2: Effective Communication (with context, clarity, information compression, and specificity)

"Yesterday was my first day at the new marketing firm downtown, and it didn’t go as planned. First, I arrived 15 minutes late because of a traffic accident on the interstate, which stressed me out immediately. Then, during the team meeting, I accidentally spilled coffee on my boss’s presentation. I apologized, but the tension lingered, and I could tell my boss wasn’t happy. Afterward, I got assigned to a project I wasn’t fully briefed on, and I felt overwhelmed trying to catch up. Overall, I left feeling embarrassed and worried about how I came across."

My bare-bones communication compression of Version 1 and Version 2 is:

Context: The first version doesn’t clarify where, when, or even what the setting is.  The second establishes where and when the event happened (first day at a marketing firm downtown).

Clarity: The first version is vague and jumps around with ambiguous pronouns (“the thing,” “some, like, important thing”). The second clearly lays out what happened in sequence.

Information Compression: The first version is cluttered with filler words and meandering thoughts. The second one is concise, but still informative.

Specificity: The first version leaves everything open to interpretation. The second one provides concrete details: being late because of traffic, spilling coffee, tension with the boss, feeling overwhelmed.

Of  course, it's one thing to think about communication context, clarity, information compression, and specificity within an abstract, intellectual exercise  as now, and quite another to consistently communicate that way in real-time. The latter, at minimum, requires your  metacognition. As I have discussed many times, to metacommunicate is to think about thinking. In the present "communication context" that means thinking about and following through with your best efforts to ensure proper context, clarity, information compression, and specificity. By doing so, you will establish common ground with your interlocutor so that they are motivated to hear your story and understand it, as intended.

An African American Scholar with a Message for Us

Thomas Sowell is a 94-year-old, renowned  African-American economist, social theorist, and author. Born in 1930 in Gastonia, North Carolina, he has lived through some of the worst and best early and current race-relevant experiences,  So, he has reasons for both criticizing and praising America.

After her husband died, his mother - who already had four children - was unable to support another child. She resolved the problem by entrusting Thomas to her sister who eventually adopted him.  When Tom was  8, the blended family moved to Harlem, New York.  After dropping out of high school, Thomas Sowell was drafted into the Marine Corps in 1951 during the Korean War, and honorably discharged in 1953. Sowell then pursued higher education, earning degrees from Harvard (B.A.), Columbia (M.A.), and the University of Chicago (Ph.D. in economics). Throughout his career, he held academic positions at institutions, such as Cornell and UCLA,  and has been a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution since 1980. To date, Sowell has authored over 30 books on topics that include economics, race, education, and social policy. I am not recounting Sowell's bio to imply that it - or any part of it - is sufficient for you to accept his ideas, but only to say that he has the longitudinal, real-life "street," and academic credibility that deserves a fair hearing. For my part, I use bold print to emphasize where I unequivocally, enthusiastically accept his statements. 

My focus is on parts of Dr. Sowell's recent video entitled "Sowell Warns About the Year 2030 - America's Total Collapse." Although I am not as pessimistic as he, Sowell expresses concern over potential societal decline by 2030. He attributes this to factors like economic mismanagement, cultural shifts, and policy decisions that, in his view, undermine traditional American values and institutions. Sowell emphasizes the importance of empirical evidence and cautions against ideological thinking that disregards historical lessons. He warns that without a return to foundational principles and critical evaluation of current trends, the U.S. could face existential challenges in the coming years. 

Sowell warns that certain economic policies, particularly those involving increased government intervention, pose significant risks to the nation's financial stability. For instance, he critiques proposals to tax unrealized capital gains, arguing that such measures could deter investment and innovation, ultimately leading to job losses and economic stagnation. Sowell contends that penalizing investors for potential, rather than actual, gains dampens the incentives that drive economic growth and job creation. But let's dig into his pronouncements about culture, policy, identity, and education. 

Sowell expresses concern over cultural transformations that, in his view, erode the foundational principles of American society. He criticizes the educational system for prioritizing self-expression and subjective experiences over rigorous academic standards, particularly in subjects like mathematics and science. This shift, he argues, leads to a generation ill-equipped to engage with complex societal issues. 

Moreover, Sowell discusses the impact of identity politics, cautioning that an overemphasis on group identity can distract from individual responsibility and merit. He warns that this focus may foster division and resentment, eroding the social cohesion necessary for a stable society. 

Sowell critiques various policy decisions that he believes have detrimental effects on traditional American values and institutions. He asserts that welfare programs, while well-intentioned, have inadvertently fostered dependency and weakened family structures, particularly within the African American community. By providing financial incentives that discourage work and marriage, these policies, according to Sowell, have contributed to social disintegration.

In the realm of education, Sowell points to the influence of teachers' unions and bureaucratic inefficiencies as obstacles to meaningful reform. He contends that these entities often prioritize their interests over student outcomes, resisting changes that could enhance educational quality and accountability. 

Sowell's analysis presents a sobering perspective on the trajectory of American society, emphasizing the need for a return to principles of personal responsibility, limited government, and cultural cohesion to avert potential decline by 2030.

Dr. Thomas Sowell’s essay strikes me as particularly important at this point in the trajectory of America. Virtually. all of our country’s leaders—and I mean virtually all—regardless of their political affiliation, view the rise of China as an existential threat. Using that frame of reference, think about the  dangers facing us from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. 

Being a baby boomer. I was born into the United States at a time when it had arisen to the pinnacle of international power and prestige.. Our economic. scientific, and military capabilities were nonpareil. Those days are long gone.  America needs all of us to be united and determined to preserve our way of life, and Western ideals.

Our adversaries enjoy watching us battle among ourselves.  We waste time, attention, and resources arguing about politicians, especially Biden and Trump.  We allow partisan divisions to paralyze us from solving problems, as is true regarding the national budget and program funding. We allowed millions of undocumented, unvetted people to pour into our country.  All the while, China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea relentlessly proceed with totalitarian, militaristic objectives. Their dictators intimidate the populous into silence; they rigidly and brutally restrict ingress and egress into the countries; and they implement war-oriented economies.